UFC 282: Fight Picks

As we get our Twitter fingers ready for the start of 2023, I am back to give you my (mediocre) picks ahead of UFC 282, the last PPV of the calendar year. I’ll go in depth and break down the fights on the main card, then leave you with simple predictions for the remaining bouts. Whatever you do, don’t bet the house, and don’t come for me if these don’t sway in your favor. If they do? You’re welcome.

Photo creds: mmajunkie.com

Anyways, let’s take a look at my picks for UFC 282, starting with the Main Event.

Main Card on Pay-Per-View

Main Event (Title Fight) - Jan Blachowicz #3 vs Magomed Ankalaev #4:

• Personally, I was significantly more excited for the original main event of Jiri vs Glover as I thought their originally bout was one of the top fights of the year and a rematch would have been electric. We all know this sport is very fluid and a significant shoulder injury to Jiri was the reason for the cancelation of the bout, which led to a vacant Light Heavyweight Title Bout to headline the show. A clash between brutes that I personally think favors the style of the Russian, as Ankalaev has the edge in the ground game with his wrestling and I believe his striking is superior enough to go toe-to-toe with Jan. Although I can see this fight starting off at a slower pace while these two dangerous fighters feel each other out, I see Ankalaev finding his shot, and dropping Jan in the middle rounds. I just think the wrestling/wrestling defense of Ankalaev is enough to keep Jan guessing on his feet which in turn will lead to the KO.

Fight Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins via KO in round 3 (I’ll even add a round to see how wrong I was later).

Co-Main Event – Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon:

• One of the UFC’s most popular fighters, Paddy ‘The Baddy’ Pimblett, gets back in action Saturday against a tough opponent in Jared Gordon. Paddy has had an electric start to his career winning over the masses with his flashy performances earning three stoppages in his first three fights. He must go up against Jared Gordon who’s as tough as they come, and he won’t go down without swinging on his high horse. I think this fight is interesting just from the fact Paddy has never seen a third round in his UFC career and I have a hard time seeing him put Gordon out in the fight. Although Gordon has not done much to impress me in his last few fights, I still think he has an opportunity to land some big shots as Paddy has shown susceptible to taking some damage. Regardless, Paddy has some high level striking and has shown he can get it done on the ground, I say this fight goes the distance and Paddy edges out Gordon for an unanimous decision win but don’t be shocked if we see another Paddy finish.

Fight Prediction: Pimblett via Unanimous Decision

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono:

• Now here is where my bold takes come in to play, I think Ponzinibbio, a UFC vet, can upset Alex Morono in this fight. He’s coming off a tough injury and hasn’t fought in a while but in his time with the organization he has beaten some tough opponents. I think Ponzinibbio can get back to his old ways and beat Morono by decision. Now Alex will not be any slouch and I expect this fight to be razor close, but I find Ponzinibbio doing enough to end that four-fight winning streak of Alex Morono. Santiago Ponzinibbio by split decision.

Fight Prediction: Ponzinibbio via Split Decision

Darren Till #10 vs Dricus Du Plessis #14:

• This fight is interesting for a variety of reasons. Both these guys are threats in the Middleweight division but Darren Till has been on a slump of late after his ferocious start to his UFC career. Du Plessis, on the other hand, is off to a very similar start with 2 KO/TKO stoppages in his first 3 fights. Till has struggled against some high-level strikers of late and I find he is going to continue those struggles, but here is the catch. I think he rallies late and finds a way to put out Du Plessis for a comeback win to get back in the win column. Till has been in some tough fights and can hold his own, even when backed in a corner. It’s a bold prediction but I have seen crazier things from this sport.

Fight Prediction: Till via TKO Round 3

Bryce Mitchell #9 vs Ilia Topuria #14:

• There has been lots of trash talk surrounding this fight leading up to the weigh-ins and pressers, but I don’t believe that will phase ‘Thug Nasty’. Undefeated in all his UFC bouts, he has even beaten the likes of Edson Barboza, an elite striker that people claimed Bryce couldn’t keep up with. Now he gets the Georgian, Ilia Topuria, who has been hot himself with a 4-0 record in the UFC. Ilia has some significant power himself for the Featherweight division, getting three KO/TKO stoppages in his four UFC fights, but I think Bryce is smart enough to find ways around his power. I find this one of the easiest picks on the card, Bryce submits Ilia in round 2 and continues to climb the ranks. Anything can happen in MMA but I find Bryce to have the edge in nearly every aspect of this fight.

Fight Prediction: Mitchell via submission round 2

Prelims on ESPN+

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Jay Perrin:

Fight Prediction: Rosas via DEC

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus:

Fight Prediction: Daukaus via SUB

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula:

Fight Prediction: Shahbazyan via DEC

Chris Curtis vs Joaquin Buckley:

Fight Prediction: Curtis via DEC

Billy Quarantillo vs Alex Hernandez

Fight Prediction: Billy Q via SUB

TJ Brown vs Erik Silva:

Fight Prediction: Silva via KO

Vinicius Salvador vs Daniel Da Silva:

Fight Prediction: Salvador via DEC

Cameron Saaiman vs Steven Koslow:

Fight Prediction: Koslow via KO